Equity investing have always been associated with high riskiness and the proverbial doom and crash in India
ANUPAM SINGHI | Fri, 16 Jun 2017-07:25am | DNA
Systematic investment plans (SIPs) were first introduced in India about 20 years ago by Franklin Templeton, a global investment firm. SIPs entail recurring disciplined investing via experienced portfolio managers. By necessitating fixed periodic (monthly, quarterly etc.) investments, it makes the timing of the markets, which can be risky, irrelevant, and at the same time, it typically provides above average market returns over a long period. Therefore, SIPs can be relatively less risky and also offer a hedge against inflation risk.
The top SIP funds have consistently given annualised returns of about 20% over the last two decades. The return from SIPs are calculated by a methodology called XIRR, which is a variant of internal rate of return (IRR). In the recent times, SIP fund managers usually tend to invest not more than 2% of the total capital available in a single stock. Portfolios are usually well diversified.
Currently, there are scores and scores of SIP funds to choose from. Different types of SIPs are available to suit an individual’s risk appetite, ROI goals, the time period of investment, and liquidity. Unlike PPF or Ulip, there are no restrictions and penalties on regular SIP payments and withdrawals. Investment can be as low as Rs 500 per month. Retail investors can look to invest in small-cap SIP funds initially, and once their capital builds up significantly, can shift to the less risky large-cap SIPs.
Equity investing have always been associated with high riskiness and the proverbial doom and crash in India. However, the trend is changing in recent times. Increased availability of information about investing, and greater digital marketing, has led to more and more individuals taking the SIP route. The number of SIP accounts has gone up by about 30% in the last 12-15 months alone. SIP monthly inflow volume now stands at about 3,000-3,500 crore, as opposed to about 1,000-1,500 crore in 2013. Retail participation is low India but is bound to increase at an accelerated rate.
Several brokerages are now waking up to the fact that higher P/E ratios are the new normal, as they are warranted by a fundamentally strong economy. Currently, the Indian stock market capitalisation to GDP ratio is approximately 98%, compared to 149% in 2007. With only about 250 Futures and Options (F&O) available out of approximately 4,200 individual securities, shorting opportunities are limited. Increased inflow SIP money could very well drive and support quality stocks in a growing economy.
The writer is COO, William O’Neil India
Sidhartha | TNN | May 5, 2017, 06.22 AM IST | Times of India
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company managing director & CEO Nimesh Shah believes in speaking his mind. While most market players are euphoric about the recent rise in stock market indices, Shah cautions investors against chasing high returns, given that the valuations are high. But he is optimistic about the medium term prospects and insists that mutual funds will be the preferred mode of investment, given the “repair work” in real estate. Excerpts:
What should someone looking to enter the stock market either with cash or via SIP do at this time?
On a price-to-earnings basis, market is over-valued at current levels. Because of the persistent flows from both foreign and domestic portfolio investors, the market is currently running a year ahead given that earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve significantly by 2018-19. This is because we believe that over the next twothree years, capacity utilisation can increase and so can the return on equity . Currently , the macros are strong but Indian companies are facing various pockets of challenges. But consumption across the spectrum is likely to hold strong. Given this expected improvement, it is likely that there could be a consistent flow of investment from institutional investors, thereby lending a reasonable investment experience over next twothree years. But since the market is already slightly over-priced, one cannot expect abnormal returns.
For those investing via SIP , they can continue with their investments because over the next three years, the investment price will average out, thereby yielding better returns. For someone who is coming in when sensex is at 30,000 level, can consider dynamic asset allocation funds which result in lower equity exposure when the equity level is up and vice versa.
But it gives you conservative returns…
Yes, it does. But it is good to opt for conservative returns when sensex is at 30,000 level.Even if the index were to head higher say 33,000 level, the only limitation here would be that the entire upside is not captured. But when market turns volatile at higher levels, this class of funds can limit downside. As we all acknowledge, there is more pain in losing Rs 5 than the joy in gaining Rs 30.
If you are investing in equity MFs, one should consider large-caps because mid-caps are over-valued at present. Continue investing but invest with caution because returns may not be too high from current levels. Just because banking funds as a category has delivered 40% plus returns, it does not mean everyone should invest in it based on past one-year return.
A few years ago, the government was worried about the huge inflows from FIIs and feared the impact post withdrawal. But now mutual funds seem to have emerged as an effective counter-balance. Has the domestic MF industry matured?
To a certain extent domestic institutions have emerged as a strong counterbalance. Over the last few months, mutual funds and foreigners have pumped in money into stock markets, thereby pushing up benchmark indices. However, even if foreign investors were to withdraw tomorrow, Indian MF and insurance industry which is putting in over $3 billion a month, will be able to balance it out, thereby limiting any adverse shocks. Today , people refrain from investing in real estate, gold and bank FDs, which is currently yielding 6-7% return pre-tax. In such an environment, equities are becoming a TINA factor -there is no alternative. So, we believe that steady inflows may continue.
How much of small investor money is coming into the market?
Mutual fund in India is all about small investors; high net worth individuals form a very miniscule portion. We are opening nearly 120 offices across smaller towns such as Nadiad (Gujarat) and Arrah (Bihar) because we believe that MF is a viable business. We have ensured that we are present pan-India, including North East. If we can give a better alternative to unorganised investment avenues, people can invest. While people in Gujarat who are more evolved investors can move to value investing, in the East, money can be moved into mutual funds from unorganized sector, there by giving us an opportunity to show the importance of well-regulated businesses.
Will the recent change in regulations push MFs?
We are in an infinite market as the MF penetration is hardly 4% in the country . The one major challenge now is simplified onboarding process for investors. Today, 85% of our business comes from existing consumers and this shows that the market is not expanding adequately . As a fund house, we receive several queries on our website, but the conversion rate is disheartening. We have come to realize that investors are wary of the entire KYC process. Like insurance, AMCs too should be allowed to use the bank KYC details, thereby eliminating the duplication of paperwork.
The reason why bank KYC should suffice is because entire industry does not deal in cash transactions. MFs receive funds via bank accounts and at the time of redemption the funds are transferred to the same bank account. So there is absolute transparency .
Source : https://goo.gl/y2MtpW
Sun, 19 Mar 2017-12:14pm | PTI | DNA India
Buoyed by the surging stock markets, the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) may propose to invest up to 15 per cent of its investable amount in equity markets during the next fiscal, Union Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya said.
“We are proposing to invest up to 15 per cent during the next year. Central Board of Trustees (CBT) meeting will be held on March 30. We will seek its opinion. So far, during the past one-and-half year we have invested Rs 18,069 crore. We are getting good yield. It is encouraging,” Dattatreya told
Just like its predecessor, 2017 promises to be a rollercoaster ride. A curtain-raiser on how to navigate the investing landscape
BY SAMAR SRIVASTAVA | Forbes India | PUBLISHED: Feb 20, 2017
2016 held an important lesson for investors—that surviving volatility is as important as making the right investment.
It was no ordinary year. The sharp market swings following Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as America’s president and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise demonetisation announcement singed investors. What is significant is that those who stayed put were none the worse off. Each time, each jolt later, the markets recovered.
This much is certain: 2017 promises to be no different. Brace for volatility, make it your friend, stay the course and profit from it.
It is against this uncertain investing backdrop that large Indian companies are looking attractive once again. Over the last three years, their smaller counterparts have delivered superlative returns. Could it be their turn now? Our story (page 58) points to an informed yes as a faster global growth forecast, rising commodity prices and lower relative valuations mean this is likely to be the year of large-caps.
Large-caps have propelled Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund to the top of the fund size table. The story of how fund manager Mahesh Patil went back to the drawing board after the 2008 financial crisis and overhauled its investing process is a compelling one.
Rapid growth companies, such as those the Birla fund has invested in, are facing a peculiar problem—identifying investible opportunities with the cash they’ve generated. What should companies ideally do with this cash and how should an investor view the cash on the books of a company? There’s no one answer with different investors offering various suggestions.
While equity markets have outperformed other asset classes, real estate remains a sound bet for those wanting to buy a house to live in. “Just as you can’t time the top of the cycle, you can never time the bottom of the cycle,” says Srini Sriniwasan of Kotak Investment Advisors. We also ask him why he believes residential demand could come back faster than expected.
Commodities have been on a tear this past year. Those who took a contrarian call in 2015 were rewarded handsomely in 2016. While the first leg of the commodity rally has played out, investors are now waiting to see whether the new US president follows up on his promise of infrastructure spending. This could provide a further fillip to prices of iron-ore, zinc and copper. Any hint of fiscal expansion will be greeted cheerfully by commodity markets.
Gold, a safe haven asset, had a good year in 2016 as investors took shelter from political shocks like Brexit. The approach tends to be to not invest in gold to beat the markets as over long periods, it tends to underperform. But in 2017, gold should do well if the US dollar remains weak and investor demand climbs up during times of volatility.
The more cautious investor, who typically invests in fixed income, had a happy 2016 as bond yields fell rapidly. Their returns outpaced a large-cap index fund. For most, this was a pleasant surprise. At the same time, nothing lasts for too long and investors wanting to do better in bonds would be better off shifting to shorter maturity bonds. They’ll also have to keep a close eye on India’s credit rating as a cut could see yields spike.
To round off this special package, we bring you two interesting trends. One, on bottom-of-the-pyramid businesses where returns have been steady: Equity funds who invested in them have done well as a column by Viswanatha Prasad, CEO, Caspian Advisors, an impact investing fund, points out.
And two, on HNI investors, with a greater appetite for risk, who are investing in startups as a new asset class, seeing themselves as partners in their progress.
By Kshitij Anand, ETMarkets.com | Updated: Nov 02, 2016, 11.09 AM ISTPost a Comment
NEW DELHI: If you believe in the power of compounding, then equity market offers you the best tool to harness this strong force via the mutual fund route, which can let create good long-term wealth.
Compounding interest separates the haves from the haven’ts. Compounding is the first step towards long-term wealth creation. When you buy a mutual fund, compounding allows you to earn interest on your principal and on the interest that you reinvest. It helps you build a large corpus over time with the smallest of initial investment.
“Einstein said the power of compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. One who understands it, earns it and the one who does not, pays it. Please exploit the power of compounding for long-term wealth creation through equity mutual funds,” Raamdeo Agrawal, Co-Founder & JMD, MOFSL, said in an interview with ETMarkets.com
“God and the government have come together to make you rich in the Indian market this year. Rs 10,000 a month invested in any equity growth fund for 25 years (Rs 30 lakh) can earn you between Rs 3 crore and Rs 25 crore,” he said.
The prerequisite for creating serious wealth is to start early, have patience and not get swayed by daily market movement. Give your investment some time to yield fruits, say experts.
You don’t have to be rich to create wealth. Many salaried people have been able to create wealth just with the magic of compounding and by following a disciplined approach towards investing.
“I know many salaried investors, who have created significant wealth than their remuneration over time. The key is to remain invested without monkeying and attempting to time the market,” said Porinju Veliyath, MD & Portfolio Manager, at Equity Intelligence India.
“Equity Intelligence has changed the financial profile of hundreds of middle-class professionals through value investing in equities,” he said.
Veliyath said India’s capital market system has evolved to world-class standards, enabling even small savers to invest conveniently, thanks to our efficient regulators and institutions.
Making money in the market has never been easy, but mutual funds have made the job a lot easier.
Stock markets never move in one direction.
There will always be some concern and fear – if not domestic then global – which will keep the market on the edge. But with a disciplined approach towards investing, investors can use volatility to buy quality stocks on dips.
“In my career spanning 25 years, there has never been a quarter where everything has gone perfectly well for India. If I go back to 1989-1990, the year 1991 was of crisis, the BOP crisis, we had the Babri Masjid demolition, Bombay bomb blasts, fall of a government, something or the other had always been missing,” Rashesh Shah, Chairman, EdelweissBSE 0.13 % Group, said in an interview with ETNow.
“To use a cliché, it is a glass half full or half empty, but the half full is actually fairly good, because in the same 25 years, the index has given you more than 18 per cent return CAGR and that was after tax,” he pointed out.
Shah said even if investors just bought the index, complete passive investing has given investors more than 18 per cent return. “As you know, the index started in 1984 or around it, and it was 100 at that time and the 100 is close to 28,000 now.”
Households are putting more money into financial assets as slowing inflation reduces the value of gold
Rajhkumar K Shaaw and Santanu Chakraborty | Tue, Oct 04 2016. 07 19 PM IST | LiveMint
Mumbai: Indian investors are shifting savings into stocks like never before.
Mutual funds showed net buying of shares for a record 10th straight quarter in September, data from Bloomberg show. Households are putting more money into financial assets as slowing inflation reduces the value of gold, a traditional favourite.
Shibabrota Konar exemplifies the shift. He’s stopped buying exchange-traded funds backed by gold and now invests at least 15,000 rupees ($225) a month into stock funds. A jump in industry-wide accounts to a record 50 million at the end of August show he’s not alone.
“Gold has eroded wealth in the past three years, while stocks have taken off,” says Konar, a 43-year-old telecom engineer who lives in Mumbai. “Equity funds offer the best way to create long-term wealth. And I can invest in small amounts.”
Retail investors like Konar have been the main contributors to mutual funds’ growth since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in May 2014 with the biggest mandate in three decades. Assets with money managers swelled to an unprecedented 16 trillion rupees ($241 billion) in August, with stock plans making up 32% of the pie. The proportion was 20% in April 2014, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India show.
Analysts cite several reasons for the trend:
The gush of money into funds has sent the nation’s small- and mid-cap stocks to a record, while providing companies with a growing pool of capital to tap for their initial share sales and helping the market weather events such as the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. Early signs suggest investors are looking past last week’s military offensive too. The S&P BSE Sensex has risen 1.7% in two days, recouping more than half of last week’s 2.8% tumble spurred by India’s attacks on Pakistan terrorist camps.
Optimism that slowing inflation may prompt the central bank to lower borrowing costs from a five-year low is also pulling investors toward stocks, says Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Pvt. The new central bank governor Urjit Patel led a united monetary policy panel to cut interest rates at its first review on Tuesday. The Sensex closed with a third day of gains after the policy decision.
“It’s time to back up the truck for stocks,” said Gopal Agrawal, chief investment officer at Mirae Asset, which manages $600 million. “The migration to moderate-risk equity products like mutual funds is growing at a phenomenal pace because of their relative attractiveness” over alternatives such as bank deposits, he said.
Equity funds have attracted 1.63 trillion rupees from April 2014 through August this year, according to AMFI data. That’s more than the 934 billion rupees that Deutsche Bank AG estimates funds got between January 2002 and April 2014.
The market benefits from a regular stream of money flowing from savers setting aside a fixed amount every month as part of their mutual fund investment plan. The industry takes in 35 billion rupees monthly from 11 million investors aiming to smooth out market swings through averaging, according to AMFI.
“People have begun to invest with maturity,” said Nilesh Shah, chief executive officer of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co. The Mumbai-based money manager, which has $9.5 billion in assets, got new inflows on Thursday when the financial markets were jolted after the nation announced it attacked terrorist camps in Pakistan.
Demographic trends are also helping, said Navneet Munot, chief investment officer at SBI Funds Management Pvt., which has $18 billion in assets.
“The bulk of our population is under 35 years of age and this generation has a much higher risk appetite,” he said. “The millennials will drive the equity boom over the next five years.”
The optimism among Indian investors contrasts with skepticism from savers elsewhere. Inflows into Japan’s stock funds fell in July to the lowest since November 2012, and stayed near that level in August, data from the Investment Trusts Association in Japan show. Almost $90 billion was pulled from US mutual and exchange-traded funds for the year through August, even as the S&P 500 Index gained almost 20% from a February low, according to data compiled by Investment Company Institute and Bloomberg.
Indian families will probably buy $300 billion of equities in the next decade, six times as much as they did in the past decade, Morgan Stanley said in a May 2015 report.
“You will be surprised with the amount of money that will come into the markets over the next three to five years,” Anand Shah, the chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt., said in an interview in Mumbai. “The incentive to buy real estate and gold is diminishing by the day.” Bloomberg
MEERA SIVA | September 18, 2016 | The Hindu Business Line
Once invested, don’t look at the portfolio frequently
Property investments in India do not give enough inflation-adjusted return, but Indian equity and bond markets present a lot of opportunities for investors, feels Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO of Institutional Equities, Ambit Capital. Excerpts from an interview with Business Line:
How do you filter companies before you make an investment decision?
I look for good stocks with high return on capital employed and consistent revenue growth. The industry the company operates in should be attractive, that is, it should be growing at over 15 per cent annually and the top players should have sizeable market share so that profits are not eroded in competition.
Some examples are men’s shaving products, trucks and speciality chemicals. Secondly, the management has to be competent and focused on the core business.
Once invested, it is also important not to look at the portfolio too frequently. Patience is central to success in investing and money cannot be made by being hyperactive.
What red flags do you watch out for?
One must be watchful of corrupt and lazy promoters whose core competence is only making great presentations.
Even good brands in booming industries flounder due to promoter issues. Besides, in India, one in two companies has some sort of accounting issue. So we have a detailed checklist to weed out accounting problems.
Only 100-120 companies in the Indian listed universe meet these checks. I think it is best to avoid companies with governance and book keeping issues as value will be destroyed sooner or later.
What returns do you look for in your investments?
While the quoted inflation rate is a lower number, what I look at is the rate of inflation for my basket of consumption.
This is around 12 per cent. So any investment that I make must meet this cut-off for return. I invest only in products that I understand and avoid exotic asset classes and overseas markets.
What are your current investments?
Due to the nature of my job, I cannot own stocks directly. So my equity investments are through mutual funds. I also have debt investments in Government and corporate bonds.
I feel there may be some tough times ahead globally due to the negative interest rate scenario. Due to these potential uncertainties, I have invested in gold through an ETF.
What are your views on real estate as an asset class?
I own the flat we live in, but beyond that I feel property investments in India do not give enough return. I feel real estate is a silent killer in high networth portfolios insofar as such returns do not keep up with inflation experienced. A 12 per cent return, post tax, is my threshold. Rental yields are very low, at 2 per cent. So buying and renting out a residential property makes little sense.
Also, in cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi, prices went up due to huge amounts of black money. With a crackdown on that, returns will be muted.
Would you recommend direct equity investments?
There are many risks in equity investments and it is best left to experts.
So mutual funds should ideally be a good way for the average middle-class investor to get equity exposure.
However, the reality is that there are many schemes and a plethora of choices that are confusing. Investors rarely get to meet fund managers and there are no reliable filters from which one can pick fund managers.
On the other hand, you can build a portfolio of good stocks by using simple filters.
For example, companies that have seen consistent revenue growth of 15 per cent every year and 15 per cent return on capital employed.
It is possible to build a good equity portfolio with 15-20 stocks and hold it over a long-term.
Our analysis shows that the annual return of such sensibly constructed portfolios can average 25 per cent over a decade.
Buying the stocks when there is pessimism in the market is a good strategy.
One can also do systematic investments in stocks.